It's groundhog day

Why putting too much weight on predictions can be a mistake.

You know the story.

Weatherman finds himself trapped in a day that repeats over and over again.

I bet you can hear the clock alarm buzzer and the song playing….

But what about the real story of Groundhog Day?

And there’s one surprising stat that might change your thinking on how much we rely on predictions…

Groundhog Day traces its origins to an old European tradition called Candlemas, where clergy would bless candles and predict the remaining length of winter.

German settlers in Pennsylvania adapted this custom in the 18th and 19th centuries, using a groundhog as a weather predictor instead of candles.

The first official Groundhog Day celebration in the U.S. took place in 1887 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, led by a group called the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

According to legend, if the groundhog sees its shadow on February 2, there will be six more weeks of winter; if not, spring will arrive early.

Today, Punxsutawney Phil remains the most famous groundhog, with the event drawing large crowds and media attention.

But here’s the thing… he’s only correct 35% of the time.

I bet if I had have asked you first - ‘how often is the groundhog correct?’ - you might have guessed north of say, 80%.

It made me reflect on the art of predicting.

A prediction by definition is ‘a forecast’, and we all know how hard it is even for the experts at the Bureau of Meteorology to get the weather forecast right (and they’re the experts!)

Forecasting can be in a sense a false practice. The very indicators we use to help us ‘predict’ an outcome are in fact, already confined to history.

How often are you relying on predictions or forecasts to make future decisions?

There’s nothing wrong with using past information to make a guess on future probability - as long as we acknowledge that it’s just that… a guess.

Sometimes we don’t know the answers because it’s hard for humans to conceive the future. Even harder when asking customers what they want!

I’ve been involved in research projects where we’ve asked customers what they want, only to have their actual behaviour be the complete opposite.

As Henry Ford said, ‘If I asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses’.

Just like Punxsutawney Phil we’re all taking a punt.

And just like the weather forecast, it’s not a prediction - it’s simply our best guess.

Oh and if you felt like you read this post yesterday… you’re right 😉